Daily Summary — May 10, 2026
Measures short-term options volatility structure, correlation stress, and market breadth to identify tactical execution risk.
Monitors cross-asset rate, curve, and funding plumbing dynamics to detect systemic liquidity freezes.
Tracks institutional futures leverage and credit spreads to quantify forced unwind and de-leveraging capacity.
Pre-confirmation breadth: 3 asset-class buckets above their own stress gate (Equity Vol + Rates & Funding + Breadth & Positioning) while both headline gauges still read NORMAL / NORMAL. Fused 4,488 RPM (NORMAL), fused composite flat (+225 RPM day-over-day, +315 over 5 sessions). Stress is accumulating underneath an unconfirmed composite — position for a regime transition rather than an event. SPX realized vol (1M/3M: 10.6% / 14.8%): 1M is below 3M by 4.2 vol points — short-term vol remains subdued.
Primary Focus: 1-Day S&P 500 Volatility (VIX1D) at P90 1Y with 1W velocity +117.9% — FRAGILE regime.
Secondary Focus: CFTC E-Mini S&P 500 Leveraged-Fund Net (COT_SPX_NET) at P71 1Y with 1W Δ −172463 contracts — DEFENSIVE regime.
Neutral — Isolated overlay flag with a sub-4,500 fused score — hold gross near benchmark and watch for cross-confirmation. Composite flat (+225 RPM day-over-day, +315 over 5 sessions).