Daily Summary — May 15, 2026
Measures short-term options volatility structure, correlation stress, and market breadth to identify tactical execution risk.
Monitors cross-asset rate, curve, and funding plumbing dynamics to detect systemic liquidity freezes.
Tracks institutional futures leverage and credit spreads to quantify forced unwind and de-leveraging capacity.
Pre-confirmation breadth: 4 asset-class buckets above their own stress gate (Equity Vol + Credit Vol & Spreads + Rates & Funding + Breadth & Positioning) while both headline gauges still read ELEVATED / NORMAL. Fused 4,798 RPM (NORMAL), fused composite rising (+437 RPM day-over-day, +310 over 5 sessions). Stress is accumulating underneath an unconfirmed composite — position for a regime transition rather than an event. SPX realized vol (1M/3M: 11.4% / 14.7%): 1M is below 3M by 3.3 vol points — short-term vol remains subdued.
Primary Focus: CFTC E-Mini S&P 500 Leveraged-Fund Net (COT_SPX_NET) at P82 1Y with 1W Δ −187955 contracts — DEFENSIVE regime.
Secondary Focus: 1-Day S&P 500 Volatility (VIX1D) at P67 1Y with 1W velocity -28.5% — NORMAL regime.
Neutral-Deteriorating — Hold gross near benchmark but stop adding risk — the composite is trending up inside the neutral band. Composite rising (+437 RPM day-over-day, +310 over 5 sessions). Pre-position hedges now; they get expensive on confirmation.