Daily Summary — May 18, 2026
Measures short-term options volatility structure, correlation stress, and market breadth to identify tactical execution risk.
Monitors cross-asset rate, curve, and funding plumbing dynamics to detect systemic liquidity freezes.
Tracks institutional futures leverage and credit spreads to quantify forced unwind and de-leveraging capacity.
Pre-confirmation breadth: 2 asset-class buckets above their own stress gate (Credit Vol & Spreads + Rates & Funding) while both headline gauges still read NORMAL / NORMAL. Fused 4,753 RPM (NORMAL), fused composite flat (+34 RPM day-over-day, +180 over 5 sessions). Stress is accumulating underneath an unconfirmed composite — position for a regime transition rather than an event. SPX realized vol (1M/3M: 10.8% / 14.7%): 1M is below 3M by 3.8 vol points — short-term vol remains subdued.
Primary Focus: CBOE 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility (VXTLT) at P73 1Y with 1W velocity +25.1% — ELEVATED regime.
Secondary Focus: ICE BofA Treasury Vol Index (MOVE) at P77 1Y with 1W velocity +21.7% — ELEVATED regime.
Risk-Off — Overlay flag active on a mid-band fused score — score and flag cross-confirm; reduce gross and tighten stops.