Daily Summary — Sep 16, 2026
Measures short-term options volatility structure, correlation stress, and market breadth to identify tactical execution risk.
Monitors cross-asset rate, curve, and funding plumbing dynamics to detect systemic liquidity freezes.
Tracks institutional futures leverage and credit spreads to quantify forced unwind and de-leveraging capacity.
Pre-confirmation breadth: 2 asset-class buckets above their own stress gate (Equity Vol + Rates & Funding) while both headline gauges still read ELEVATED / NORMAL. Fused 5,033 RPM (NORMAL), fused composite cooling (−265 RPM day-over-day, +345 over 5 sessions). Stress is accumulating underneath an unconfirmed composite — position for a regime transition rather than an event. SPX realized vol (1M/3M: 8.9% / 11.4%): 1M is below 3M by 2.5 vol points — short-term vol remains subdued.
Primary Focus: 10Y – 2Y Treasury Spread (T10Y2Y) at P98 1Y with 1W Δ −12 bps — FLATTENING regime.
Secondary Focus: 1-Day S&P 500 Volatility (VIX1D) at P71 1Y with 1W velocity +48.6% — ELEVATED regime.
Risk-Off — Overlay flag active on a mid-band fused score — score and flag cross-confirm; reduce gross and tighten stops.